Thinking about Cycles & Open Web

While we are often busy with our daily lives, we are oftentimes interacting with the changing environment around us. We often see that that conventional wisdom is overturned by disrupting forces or paradigm shifts. Hence I often tell myself that it is important to look at what’s ahead and what’s changing around my environment and figure out the response to change. Lately, my observations indicate that the current cycle of the Internet might be coming to an end while a new cycle emerges.

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How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

One of the most important books I have read in 2017 was Ray Dalio’s principles. He has recently published an interesting video which reframed the way which I have understood economics. It is the best economics 101 which makes me think differently about our economy in terms of productivity, long and short term debt cycles over 10 years.

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How I think

Here is a framework that I explain to others to about my thinking process. Basically, how I think is broken into three parts: break the problem and solve by first principles, build or understand a strategy around a problem by a Bayesian approach i.e ascribing probabilities and statistics to a set of solutions that might tackle the problem that is complex and emergent, and lastly, figuring a business problem using basic unit economics and perspectives while figuring out how irrationality or behavior models might affect them.

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